(1/2) A 2nd look at *prelim* DOW data from Mangum, OK tornado reveals a potentially violent tornado: ~80m/s peak winds (~180mph), *Delta-V* of 140 m/s, and a pronounced debris ball. Nearly ten years later I convinced my dad to take me storm chasing with a tour group called Silver Lining Tours after seeing a TV show about the tour leader, Roger Hill. Long-lived EF3 tornado, the strongest recorded in southeast MT. EF2 tornado, well-documented and heavily-studied by VORTEX2. Long-tracked EF5 wedge tornado that killed 9 people. Particularly photogenic tornadic waterspout, part of a large-scale tornado outbreak. One of the costliest severe thunderstorm events in U.S. modern history at an estimated $11 billion. In a thread on his personal Twitter account, Edwards offered wide-ranging thoughts on what happened and what we can learn from it. EF3 tornado that killed 6 people. The Weather Companys primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. Long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 10 people. Part of an outbreak of particularly photogenic nocturnal tornadoes, unprecedented for the time of year for the area. Long-lived, dusty, and nearly stationary EF2 tornado. Long-tracked EF3 tornado, part of an unusual tornado outbreak for the time of year. That is beyond our current abilities to forecast in any longer-term forecast. First and foremost, Im so, so proud of how we navigated around the storm. A series of particularly photogenic tornadoes, some well-documented at a close range, part of a local outbreak of tornadoes up to EF3. Our weather forecasts continue to improve as our technology and understand advance but tornado forecasting is still hard. May 24th, 2011 featured an ultra, ultra rare 45% hatched probability for tornadoes that lived up to its potential by producing several long-track, violent tornadoes. Upon making it to Childress, we noticed something odd; the tornadic mid-morning storms hadnt developed. While my passion in weather is undoubtedly tornadoes, it isn't quite where my formal expertise lies. The tornado was just one part of a three-day severe weather event. At 1.7 miles in width, the hit would prove unnecessarily excessive. Part of the 2011 Super Outbreak. For educational use. Truncated cone tornado rated EF2 that damaged a gas plant. We were confused, as we didnt have a visual of a ground circulation even given our ability to see the rapidly rotating wall cloud just to our west. EF4 tornado from a cyclic supercell, part of MNs largest tornado outbreak on record. In many ways, it seemed like a slam dunk. Ultimately, Monday was a day with truly sobering high-end potential, so we can be grateful that supercells didnt end up developing in the right places and at the right times to take full advantage of the situation. Particularly photogenic low-precipitation barberpole supercell that later produced an EF3 wedge tornado that took a highly deviant northwest motion. We decided on the latter, as the storm wasnt looking imminently tornadic and we felt that this strategy would give us the best opportunity to stay ahead of the storm should a strong mesocyclone develop and cause the storm to deviate to the right. The corridor of activity closely matched the moderate- and high-risk areas outlooked by SPC the night before (see below). Myconcern is that our weather geekery and verification statistics dont really matter to someone that was impacted. Tornado in Mangum, Oklahoma on May 20, 2019More Info:https://www.benholcomb.com/chases/20190520/Contact:ben@bholcomb.com Your email address will not be published. Widest and strongest recorded tornado on Earth, at 2.6 miles wide and 302 mph winds measured by mobile radar, that exhibited particularly erratic motion and killed 8 people, including storm chasers and 3 members of the TWISTEX research team. The outbreak was widely anticipated with a Moderate risk originally being issued on Day 2. . A particularly photogenic mothership supercell. EF3 tornado, part of a large-scale tornado outbreak. Long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 16 people. At that moment, we knew the day was done. @CSWRDOW #tTWIRL #okwx pic.twitter.com/sCquPobT48, Preliminary data from RaXPol of the Mangum, OK tornado yesterday. PDS Tornado Watch # 199 is coming for Oklahoma. The cap won. Many believe the High Risk outlook issued by the SPC busted. Particularly photogenic EF3 tornado that killed two teens driving. Long-tracked F2 tornado associated with the Six-State supercell, which lasted over 17 hours and travelled nearly 800 miles from Oklahoma to Michigan. Try these recipes to prepare dishes with confidence. Photogenic tornado family (up to EF3), part of a tornado outbreak over the TX Panhandle produced largely by a few cyclic supercells. Particularly photogenic surprise tornado. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for the entire county warning area (CWA) late Thursday afternoon. Particularly photogenic, stationary supercell that produced a few brief tornadoes. Thousands of people were out chasing that day, and yet it appeared that very few were in a similar position to ours. The short of it: I hold a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and have been chasing storms in the plains since 2006. Created and maintained by Cameron Nixon. A derecho that damaged over 850,000 acres of crops across eastern IA and destroyed over 1,000 homes in Cedar Rapids alone, where a gust of 126 mph was recorded nearby. Data is our film room.. Here are three dangers of the word bust in such real-time weather events. This is a little-used threat category, and it had been two years since a similar high-level alert had been issued in the United States. They also issued a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watch for parts of Texas and Oklahoma. Could be a little placebo effect, but I choose to believe its not. Now a quick scientific opinion: to me, every weather forecast should be formulated and communicated probabilistically using multiple models and model runs (re: ensemble models) in order to best understand the full spectrum of possible outcomes that a particular event might span. A quick recap of rainfall and flood reports over the past 24 hours, compared to the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook at 15Z yesterday (after High Risk was expanded). Go to: 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |. Highly technical indexes such as supercell composite and significant tornado parameter were approaching extreme values. Particularly photogenic EF3 tornado with well-documented and mesmerizing sub-vortex dynamics. (Katie Wheatley) Volleys of tornadoes touched down for 14 straight days beginning May 17, 2019. Not long thereafter, they outdid even that: a second watch east of the first one featuring maxed out, greater than 95% probabilities for every single watch criterion. Prolific tornadic supercell producing 13 often-photogenic tornadoes (up to EF3), with three documented simultaneously, in a localized area. RAP soundings will often display saturation aloft that masks otherwise drier profiles near convection. Particularly photogenic and cyclic supercell that produced several tornadoes up to EF3. At the time of this writing, we are planning to head out next week to chase with fellow H&H chasers Travis and John. For example, the wealth of computer model runs issued before the event can be compared with data from special efforts like the TORUS field campaign, to figure out what the models did and didnt capture ahead of time. Long-lived EF3 tornado (though measured by mobile radar to be stronger) from a high-precipitation supercell. The OH extent of the event was largely a surprise until late in the forecast period. November 15, 2005: Madisonville, Kentucky, April 2, 2006: Marmaduke, Arkansas / Caruthersville, Missouri, March 28, 2007: Silverton / Jericho, Texas, April 24, 2007: Eagle Pass, Texas / Piedras Negras, CH, Mexico, June 23, 2007: Pipestone, Manitoba, Canada, February 5, 2008: Atkins / Clinton, Arkansas, February 5, 2008: Jackson and Clifton, Tennessee, August 7, 2010: Tyler, North Dakota / Doran, Minnesota, December 31, 2010: Fort Leonard Wood, Missouri, April 27, 2011: Philadelphia, Mississippi, April 27, 2011: Hackleburg & Smithville, Alabama, April 27, 2011: Tuscaloosa / Birmingham, Alabama, May 24, 2011: El Reno / Piedmont, Oklahoma, May 24, 2011: Chickasha / Newcastle, Oklahoma, May 19, 2012: Kingman / Harper Counties, Kansas, February 10, 2013: Hattiesburg, Mississippi, May 19, 2013: Lake Thunderbird / Shawnee, Oklahoma, April 27, 2014: Mayflower / Vilonia, Arkansas, May 18, 2014: Wright / Newcastle, Wyoming, April 9, 2015: Rochelle / Fairdale, Illinois, May 6, 2015: Amber / Bridge Creek / Norman, Oklahoma, June 5, 2015: Anton / Cope / Kirk, Colorado, June 22, 2015: Woodhaven Lakes / Sublette, Illinois, July 13, 2015: Nickerson / Hutchinson, Kansas, November 16, 2015: Plains, Kansas and Pampa, Texas, December 23, 2015: Holly Springs, Mississippi, May 9, 2016: Katie / Wynnewood / Sulphur, Oklahoma, May 24, 2016: Minneola / Dodge City, Kansas, June 2, 2017: Three Hills, Alberta, Canada, July 12, 2017: Mayville/ Buxton, North Dakota, June 28, 2018: Capitol, Montana / Camp Crook, South Dakota, July 8, 2018: Interstate 8 / Southwest Arizona, July 19, 2018: Bondurant, Marshalltown, and Pella, Iowa, September 21, 2018: Dunrobin / Gatineau / Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, October 2, 2018: Conneautville, Pennsylvania, December 1, 2018: Havana and Taylorville, Illinois, May 23, 2019: Canadian, Texas / Laverne, Oklahoma, September 10, 2019: Guernsey / Lingle, Wyoming, September 29, 2019: Champaign County, Illinois, March 2, 2020: Nashville / Cookeville, Tennessee, April 12, 2020: Bassfield / Soso, Mississippi, April 22, 2020: Madill / Springer, Oklahoma, August 7, 2020: Virden / Scarth, Manitoba, Canada, March 25, 2021: Greensboro / Centreville, Alabama, April 27, 2021: Truscott / Benjamin / Electra, Texas, June 10, 2021: Sidney, Montana / Alexander, North Dakota, July 14, 2021: Jewell Junction / Stanhope, Iowa, August 11, 2021: Mineral Point, Wisconsin, September 1, 2021: Mullica Hill, New Jersey, December 10, 2021: Monette, Arkansas / Mayfield, Kentucky, March 21, 2022: Round Rock & Elgin, Texas, March 22, 2022: New OrleansArabi, Louisiana, April 21, 2022: Rush Center & Offerle, Kansas, November 4, 2022: Clarksville, Texas Idabel, Oklahoma, a local outbreak in and around the Texas panhandle, series of particularly photogenic tornadoes, Pair of particularly photogenic tornadoes. Much of the Texas Panhandle and nearly all of Oklahoma dodged a serious bullet. The event highly resembled, at least in HRRR model space, high-impact Dixie Alley events where strong to violent tornadoes are more common than anywhere else in the world. Oklahoma City, OKNorman, OKLawton, OKEdmond, OKMidwest City, OK Tulsa, OKWichita Falls, TXBroken Arrow, OKEnid, OKMuskogee, OK Lubbock, TXAbilene, TXFort Smith, ARFayetteville, ARSpringdale, AR Dallas, TXFort Worth, TXBoston, MAArlington, TXWichita, KS New York, NYPhiladelphia, PABaltimore, MDWashington, DCKansas City, MO Oklahoma City, OKTulsa, OKLubbock, TXAmarillo, TXAbilene, TX Oklahoma City, OKNorman, OKEdmond, OKMidwest City, OKMoore, OK Lawton, OKStillwater, OKShawnee, OKDuncan, OKAda, OK Dallas, TXFort Worth, TXArlington, TXPlano, TXGarland, TX Colorado Springs, COWichita, KSWorcester, MASpringfield, MASpringfield, MO Oklahoma City, OKTulsa, OKAbilene, TXNorman, OKWichita Falls, TX Lubbock, TXAmarillo, TXMidland, TXOdessa, TXSan Angelo, TX Fort Worth, TXBoston, MAWichita, KSProvidence, RIWorcester, MA New York, NYPhiladelphia, PADallas, TXBaltimore, MDWashington, DC Oklahoma City, OKTulsa, OKNorman, OKWichita Falls, TXLawton, OK Lubbock, TXAmarillo, TXAbilene, TXMidland, TXOdessa, TX Dallas, TXFort Worth, TXArlington, TXWichita, KSPlano, TX New York, NYPhiladelphia, PABaltimore, MDBoston, MAWashington, DC Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table, May 20, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Photogenic tornado produced by supercell in an anomalously unstable environment in the high terrain of NE NM. For a time, it did seem like a slam dunk. They very much hoped I'd be scared straight to the point of wanting to cancel the trip. As we began the trek to get back in front, the storm began to pulse upward and the rotation began to tighten there was hope. Wedge tornado produced by high-precipitation supercell, with recorded winds up to 212 mph, though rated an EF2. The latter tornado is often thought to be among the strongest of recorded tornadoes. While waiting for them to mature a bit, we decided to drift a bit east towards Hollis, Oklahoma in order to give ourselves a bit of breathing room once they started rocketing towards us as fully developed, tornadic supercells. MOORE, Okla. - Six years ago, a devastating EF-5 tornado hit Moore, killing more than 20 people, including children. Once youre using EXTREME and VIOLENT with regularity, where do you go from there when the red lights start flashing? EF4 tornado that killed 9 people after impacting an elevated highway bridge. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. Considering that this was now occurring after the morning storms depicted in the models failed to develop, we started to worry that perhaps something was occurring in the atmosphere that the models didnt pick up on. I am also something of an amateur weather historian and collector, collecting a multitude of rare meteorological books and documents. Long-tracked EF4 tornado, part of a local outbreak of intense tornadoes in the ArkLaTex. Long-tracked EF4 tornado, part of a prolific QLCS that produced multiple intense tornadoes simultaneously. Login . We managed to stay ahead of that and get a beautiful view of a gorgeous white tornado. Two long-tracked EF5 tornadoes from separate supercells that, together, killed 95 people. After having it read to me just once, I was hooked. Pair of photogenic tornadic waterspouts over Lake Michigan. We turned on the radio to listen to local reports that were coming through. Particularly photogenic supercell that produced both a cyclonic and an anticyclonic tornado simultaneously. Infamous twin EF4 tornadoes from a supercell which produced 5 tornadoes, 4 of which were rated as EF4. Infamous long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 6 people and destroyed an already decaying town. Overcast skies limited surface heating. At times, there seems to be a disappointment factor if nothing happens, and there was preparation. The decision to move east then north in order to catch the tornado between East Duke and Mangum proved to be tactically perfect. EF3 tornado, part of several tornadoes produced by the remnants of Hurricane Ida. June? For the period from 7 am CDT Monday to 7 am Tuesday, the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had logged at least 26 tornado reports by Tuesday afternoon, along with 80 reports of severe wind (4 of those higher-end significant reports), and 87 reports of severe hail (14 of those significant). I was excited. Particularly photogenic orange carrot tornado. As if this wasnt enough, the SPC soon issued its first watch for right where we were sitting. On Monday, more than 20 tornadoes developed across four states in the southern Great Plains, producing pockets of considerable damage throughout Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. Known as the lawnmower man tornado, thanks to a viral and nonchalant photo. Follow here for the latest. Home destroyed by EF3 tornado in Celina on May 27, 2019. At least when Im chasing (and often when Im not), I stay up the night before to see the new day one outlook, issued at 1 am central time. I will write about these on occasion, and am most proud of my John Park Finley and Theodore Fujita collections. The cold upper low in the western U.S. thats been helping to trigger this weeks severe weatheras well as a few surprisingly intense late-May snows over parts of the West and Upper Midwestwill twirl in place while slowly weakening this week. A series of two almost mirror-image photogenic mothership supercells, both of which produced tornadoes. Every Friday we would get paired up with a third grader who would read us a book. But the feared phalanx of violent tornadoes never materialized. Drawing on my earlier research days attempting to grow mathematically simulated, intense thunderstorms on a Cray supercomputer, I can attest to the nonlinearity of the atmosphere: Very slight changes in the thermodynamic environment of a storm can have disproportionately large profoundly large impacts on the response of cloud systems, most notably the vigor and depth of cloud updrafts. It had the smell. Marsh showed atmospheric profiles collected on Monday from Norman, OK, and in the catastrophic 2011 Super Outbreak from Birmingham, AL, and reflected on how similar they were. Preliminary reports of tornadoes (red Ts), thunderstorm wind damage or high winds (blue Ws) and large hail (green Hs) by day from May 17-May 27, 2019.