It indicates the ability to send an email. Clinton would have won 278 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 260. HTML5Canvas Map by DougX.net, he really does understand the working people of the rust belt, ridicule and condescending laughter on the Bill Maher show. This analysis is not an interrogation of Clinton’s and Trump’s strategies. Both Democrats and Republicans would be foolish to sacrifice the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, given that this was Clinton’s route to victory in 2016 with the smallest total vote margin. Table 5 then substitutes Wisconsin for Pennsylvania. Justice Antonin Scalia’s death on February 13, 2016, led Obama to nominate Merrick Garland for the seat on March 16, 2016. Dear Readers: On today’s 2 p.m. edition of Sabato’s... Dear Readers: On tomorrow’s 2 p.m. edition of... Dear Readers: On Thursday’s 2 p.m. edition of... Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. eastern for our... Customize your map by changing one or more states. Edited by Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. The other states — Minnesota, Nevada, and Maine — appear to be heavier lifts for the 2020 Republican nominee. In 2016 I released a series of maps as to how I saw election night unfolding. (Trump got 30.5, Hillary 19.5. This year he has Trump winning the electoral vote 330 to Biden’s 208. The news media and election experts were surprised at Trump's winning the electoral college. Check back often or sign up for our email list. In 1988, when the popular vote margin was seven percentage points, there were just 17 states which were won by such big margins. In simulations where Clinton had won these less competitive states, she probably would already have won the requisite 270 Electoral College votes elsewhere. ElectoralMap.net is going to HTML5 for the 2016 election season. The negative tone of the 2016 presidential election led to the highest third-party vote total since 1996. The 800,000 or so Texas voters who provided Trump’s winning margin, just like those in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, determined the 2016 election, too. Numbers indicate electoral votes cast by each state and the District of Columbia. Businessman Donald Trump (R) defeated former New York Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) for the presidency on November 8, 2016. But that was still enough to get Trump to the 270 to win. These demographic victories translated into Republican inroads into the Upper Midwest and the Northeast. In Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the Johnson and Stein vote totals exceeded the margins of victory for Trump. Still, it is generally easier and less expensive to influence fewer voters than more. The election results are now official This isn’t just a random person making a guess. Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site.
simplemaps_election.selected.R = ['AK', 'AL', 'AR', 'AZ', 'FL', 'GA','IA', 'ID', 'IN', 'KS', 'KY', 'LA', 'ME2', 'MI', 'MO', 'MS', 'MT', 'NC', 'ND', 'NE', 'NE1', 'NE2', 'NE3', 'OH', 'OK', 'PA', 'TN', 'TX', 'UT', 'SC', 'SD', 'WI', 'WY', 'WV'];
The minimum number of voters needed to assemble 270 Electoral College votes would be invaluable information to presidential campaigns.
This is one way to evaluate the costs of competing in a state, how competitive the state is, and the size of the reward for winning the state (the size of its electoral delegation). Did Trump win 304 or 306 electoral votes? The Clinton campaign highlighted Trump’s financial dealings, refusal to release tax returns, and bankruptcies as indicators of questionable behavior. 2020 Takeaway: Florida will be crucial if the Republican nominee holds the Rust Belt. All election data used in this piece are from Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Pivit lost accuracy in late October, suddenly and erratically, when there were jolting shifts (as large as 24% in the case of Florida ) toward Clinton. Clinton was criticized for referring to half of Trump’s supporters as deplorables. When the consensus forecast changes, the map will automatically change on your site too! Trump won states (and one district in Maine) worth 306 electoral votes (this map). The ABC News 2020 Electoral Map shows state-by-state votes on the path to win the 2020 Presidential Election. McCullough does all his research and has been accurate with his election map every year since 2006. She supported increased screening of visa applicants from countries controlled by the Islamic State and use of military force against ISIS.
Comments. Copy Code. This figure comes from totaling the margins in these three states that, had Clinton won them, would have flipped the election. 2020 Takeaway: North Carolina could fill the same role as Arizona, becoming the tipping point state if Democrats only flip two of the three Rust Belt states.
Man Who Says He Predicted 2016 Perfect To Within Half a State Has Trump Winning With 330 Electoral Votes in 2020!
Place the map on your website with this code. (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); ©2016 ElectoralMap.net, all rights reserved Ray Dubuque says. Then please help us by sharing it: Think This Map Was Brilliant? In 2016, Donald Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by roughly three million people but won 304 electoral votes and the presidency.
Flashback: Man Rushes Stage At President Trump During Rally. Trump supported keeping the seat open until the election was resolved and released a list of prospective nominees in September 2016. Trump’s victory in 2016 relied on victories among white and independent voters.
Last year he even predicted Trump would win 30 states and Hillary Clinton would win 20, the results were Trump Won 30.5 and Hillary won 19.5. Table 6 shows Clinton flipping Florida and Michigan. Businessman Donald Trump (R) defeated former New York Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) for the presidency on November 8, 2016.Trump received 304 electoral votes to Clinton’s 227 electoral votes. The 2016 electoral map is above. Winning the national popular vote doesn’t matter, as we saw most recently in the 2000 and 2016 presidential elections where the winner of the popular vote actually lost the election.
What If All States Split Their Electoral Votes.
Instead, it will use the electoral margins of 2016 to understand the possible paths forward for the parties in 2020. You need to obtain a modern browser to use this Electoral Map application. was diverging from Pivit somewhat rapidly. 2020 Takeaway: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin should be a priority (if not the number one priority) for both the Republican and Democratic nominees. Despite Clinton’s support from Democratic leadership, Sanders stayed in the race through June 2016 with grassroots organizing and significant support from individual donors.
2020 Takeaway: Texas is probably out of reach for Democrats. 2016 Presidential Election Results. Below, in Table 1, are the three crucial Rust Belt states of 2016 — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Clinton and Trump criticized each other over character issues and shared divergent views on America’s role in the world. The cheapest electoral votes come from states that have tight margins and lots of electoral votes. There’s no way to cover all the Electoral College possibilities without things getting too muddled.
In 2020, many political analysts think that Wisconsin, where Democrats will hold their national convention in 2020, could prove to be the tipping point state in a close election. Any review of the various 2020 Electoral College combinations should begin with Florida, a state key to all presidential fortunes since the 2000 presidential election. We’ll be updating the consensus map as more forecasts come in. McCullough on his map has Trump flipping Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. Donald Trump’s 306 to 232[1] Electoral College victory over Hillary Clinton obscures just how competitive the race was. If you prefer, you can also use the 2016 electoral map or the 2018 midterm election vote as the starting point for your own electoral forecast. What Is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact? Table 11 shows the most competitive states (by percentage, total votes, and cost per electoral vote) that Clinton won in 2016. 2020 Takeaway: If Democrats are unable to flip any of the Rust Belt states, their best Sun Belt only path may be flipping Florida and Arizona. But because of Democratic gains among college-educated voters in these states, both have moved sharply toward the Democrats in recent years. This route, though, had a much larger margin and costlier Electoral College votes in 2016, and seems unlikely to be easier for Democrats than the other proposed paths.
Table 7 presents Clinton’s first “Sun Belt” only path, where she flips Florida and Arizona. 2020 Takeaway: Arizona could be the tipping point state if Democrats flip Pennsylvania and Michigan or Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but fail to flip the third Rust Belt state. Democrats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan swept the races for Senate and governor, and picked up valuable House seats, defeating Trump-backed Republicans at all levels. He has chosen every election correctly since 2006. Joe Tells Police to Shoot Suspects in the Legs, ANTIFA Attacks Anti Big Tech Rally, Assault Black Conservative, Breitbart Exclusive: Hunter Biden Associates Set Up Chinese Execs Meetings w/ White House. The winner of the presidential election must win the majority of the electoral votes — that is at least 270 out of the 538 available.
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